Maria Lagutina, Ph.D. in Political Science, Associate Professor, Department of International Politics, St. Petersburg State University
© From the personal archive

Maria Lagutina: Russia considers India a promising and important partner in many areas

Over the weekend, Russia and India issued a joint statement in which "the Russian Federation expressed its interest in engaging Indian companies to participate in joint projects to develop Russia’s Arctic shelf." Arctic.ru spoke about the prospects of such cooperation with Maria Lagutina, Ph.D. in Political Science and Deputy Head of the Department of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University.

Is this statement about cooperation in the oil and gas industry and bringing in Indian companies to developing the Arctic shelf real, or is it just another statement of intent that are signed fairly often?

Recently, India has been considered by the Russian authorities as a promising and important partner in many areas: from India's participation in Eurasian integration to the two countries' cooperation in the Arctic. As for the Arctic, the issue here is about cooperation in the energy sector, and at this particular stage, the talks are already underway not only at the governmental level, but also at the level of individual companies and specific projects. Thus, Rosneft and Gazprom are preparing joint projects with the Indian companies, and some of them will be launched in the near future.

What are these projects? Which companies may join this project?

In 2011, Gazprom signed four memorandums on LNG supplies to India with several Indian companies, such as GAIL, Indian Oil Corporation Limited, Gujarat State Petroleum Company (GSPC) and Petronet LNG Limited (Petronet).

In 2012, a subsidiary of Gazprom Marketing and Trading Singapore and India's GAIL signed a legally binding 20-year LNG purchase and sale contract. Under the contract, GAIL will be receiving 2.5 million tons of LNG per year for 20 years. Gas was to be supplied from the Shtokman gas condensate field, the development of which was frozen after Russia was hit with sanctions. According to the current plans, gas from the Yamal project in the Barents Sea will be used instead.

Currently, work is underway to include India's OVL (a subsidiary of state oil and gas corporation ONGC which is already part of the Sakhalin-1 project) in the project. In May of 2016, Rosneft signed a memorandum of understanding with OVL regarding cooperation on the Arctic shelf. Gazpromneft is also interested in establishing cooperation with Indian oil and gas companies in order to implement its Arctic projects.

When will the actual work begin?

According to the Russian president, the first batch of liquefied natural gas may be delivered to India in 2017 under the contract between Gazprom and GAIL. The annual volume will amount to 2.5 million tons. In the worst case scenario, deliveries will begin in 2021. The projects involving OVL are still being discussed.

Are other BRICS countries interested in developing Russia's Arctic shelf? Are there any plans?

Russia and China cooperate very actively in the Arctic. A project to produce liquefied natural gas is being implemented by Gazprom on the Yamal Peninsula in cooperation with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). In 2013, CNPC reached an agreement with Rosneft to develop three areas of the Arctic shelf together.

At the moment, Brazil is not a party to Arctic cooperation, but has been quite active in recent years as it tried to become an observer at the Arctic Council, based on Brazil's success in the Antarctic. According to Brazilian experts, Brazil's active role in the Arctic and the Antarctic is determined by its national interests. As is known, Brazil is the world's seventh largest economy and is actively developing green technology in the energy sector. According to CEO of SET International, Ltd. S. Trindade, Brazilian businessmen consider the Arctic a promising investment.

In addition to the prospects for oil and gas production off the Arctic shelf, which as of now is not profitable due to declining oil prices, Brazil is interested in spheres of Arctic cooperation, such as shipping, fishing, and tourism. Brazil is interested in becoming an investor in these areas in the Arctic. In practice, Brazil is sufficiently close to the Arctic economically.

Major Brazilian mining company Vale S. A. may be the most promising partner for Arctic development. This company is active in Canada, an Arctic country, where it owns several railway lines and seaports. This Brazilian company may become a model to follow for other Brazilian companies.

Brazilian businesses are also interested in navigation on northern sea routes. Brazil is the world's ninth largest shipbuilding power, and is therefore interested in taking part in the construction of the Arctic merchant fleet alongside such countries as China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. At this particular stage, it is big business that is promoting the idea of ​​Brazil's participation in developing the Arctic.

Who among the BRICS countries is the most preferable partner in the Arctic exploration for Russia?

China is number one hands down. As for the other BRICS countries, on the one hand, it's India, with which talks are already underway, but we should not forget that India is a close partner of the United States and in this context the political factor can slow down the development of cooperation between our two countries. On the other hand, Brazil could become a reliable and stable partner of Russia in the energy sector of Arctic cooperation.